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@observer Wed, 13 Nov 2024 03:47:54

High returns or hidden costs? The complex reality of Ugandan bonds

With the investment culture building up steam in Uganda because of the increasing awareness and exposure of the working middle-class, the once moribund bond market has moved to the top of the investments deck. The recently acquired favoured position of bonds has for the most part been galvanized by increased internal government borrowing, and the loud drive pushing people to invest in bonds across various digital platforms because of the near-zero risk associated with them. WHAT IS A BOND? A bond is a loan given to a corporation or government by an investor: the one who buys it. It is financial security, and can be bought from the central bank through a subsidiary like a bank from what is called the primary market; or from other bond-holders through a bank of their choice in what is known as the secondary market. They are used to raise money by corporations and governments with the latter using them to heat check the economy as a monetary policy tool to control inflation. Bonds are viewed as less risky investments because the default risk of governments is close to nothing. THE OTHER SIDE OF BONDS There is a never-discussed dimension of bonds that its crusaders conveniently choose to leave out to the disadvantage of the common investor who needs the full picture painted for them of this financial security before they pour their money into it. To begin with, bonds are an ideal investment for investors whose priority is safety, and not large returns. Secondly, rising interest rates and bonds have an inverse relationship: when interest rates rise, bond yields fall and vice versa. This means that when new bonds are issued with high interest rates, automatically, the value of the old bonds drops indicating that their holders sell them at a loss — discount. More times than not, this has been the case in the Ugandan bond market. Since January 2022, the central bank rate [CBR] has risen by 3.75 per cent from 6.5 per cent to 10.25 per cent in June 2024. This reveals that bond yields have been dropping in the last couple of years as Bank of Uganda [BoU] raises the CBR. Likewise, bonds issued by BoU aren’t inflation-protected, and their yields are lower than the increasing price levels in the economy. When bonds are inflation-protected, the prevailing rate of inflation is added to the yield, thereby protecting the bondholder from rising prices. This is not the case for Ugandan bonds. Inflation weakens the shilling; as per BoU, in the last five years, currency circulation has gone up on average by 12.6 per cent. Economists have come to associate increased money circulation with the level of inflation. In FY 2022/2023, headline inflation hit 8.8 per cent, and core inflation was 7.4 per cent. In reality, inflation eats into the profit of the bond, suggesting that they are not suitable in inflation hotbeds because not only do rising prices weaken currencies; but the continuous deployment of monetary policy tools by BoU to curb the heating economy results in falling yields of bonds. Then there are the various costs associated with bonds. For instance, they attract commission fees, and a withholding tax; and because of the always-rising interest rates, bond investors oftentimes buy them at a premium: that is, above their face value Besides, the bond market in Uganda is designed for the bondholder to benefit only when the bond market is soaring. Financial instruments that initiate the function of profit in times of economic downturns in the bond market called contracts-for-difference [CFDs] through short-selling are non-functional. CFDs are functional in South Africa, Europe and South America; but the financial regulatory framework for their existence hasn’t been provided for in Uganda. On buying bonds, businesswoman and investment enthusiast Moreen Oyulu had this to say, “With bonds, once you invest money in them, you’ll not see that money until the maturity date, all you’ll get is the coupon which is the interest you’ll have earned from the bond. In other words, if you needed that money for an emergency, you’ll not have access to it until the bond matures”. “Before you invest in bonds, you have to examine your set of circumstances and factor in conditions like: ‘Do you have a monthly income from a job or any other disposable income? If you do not have that, then bonds are not for you’”. “Because if an emergency occurs, you’ll not have access to the money locked up in bonds. I would instead recommend investing in a unit trust because they’re transactional: if you wanted your money out tomorrow, you’d get it. And with unit trusts, you have interest added to your account daily; which interest is higher than that awarded by treasury bills and bonds, not ignoring the fact that the interest earned isn’t taxed”. Dr Enoq Twinoburyo, senior economic consultant at SDG Centre for Africa, had this to say about the danger of heightened domestic borrowing through government bonds, citing Ghana as an example. “The Government of Uganda faces increasing interest rate risk, as domestic borrowing costs rise. The government’s long-term domestic debt structure entails substantial interest payments, and with an upward-sloping yield curve, future rates could escalate further. This is particularly concerning as market sentiment and outlooks are currently skewed towards downside risks, implying potentially higher future borrowing costs”. “Although banks in Uganda hold excess reserves above the minimum required by the central bank, the sustained increase in government borrowing has limited the growth of private sector credit. This suggests a ‘crowding out’ effect, where funds that might have gone towards private lending are diverted to government securities, restraining private investment and broader economic growth”. “The government’s reliance on bond roll-overs presents significant refinancing risks. As treasury redemptions grow, the rollovers now account for over 30% of domestic revenue. If market sentiment shifts and bondholders begin to price in higher risk, Uganda may face severe financing pressures, which could elevate debt servicing costs and restrict fiscal space”. A bond rollover is when a bond that has reached its maturity is refinanced. This pauses a risk as it may be refinanced at a higher interest rate than it was paid for, pointing to a scenario where the government pays its debtors, and immediately has to borrow from them at a higher interest rate. “The case of Ghana highlights the potential consequences of high domestic debt. Facing escalating debt, Ghana undertook a domestic debt restructuring (DDR) on government bonds as part of its agreement with the IMF to access the first tranche ($600 million) of a $3 billion bailout. “This restructuring, while essential for securing the IMF program, was a painful reality, marking significant losses for bond-holders. Treasury bills and deposit accounts were excluded, safeguarding day-to-day banking operations, but domestic bonds experienced cuts in value, reducing market confidence and bondholder returns”. Dr. Twinoburyo warns that, “Uganda’s over-dependence on domestic borrowing suggests it could face similar restructuring risks if debt continues unchecked”. In his words, “Ghana’s experience illustrates the importance of balanced debt management to avoid the need for such painful measures”. In closing, it’s only fair that the prospective investor in Ugandan bonds is given the privilege to pick their side of the divide after being briefed on both sides of the debt security, and not the slanted version that is presently pushed. kidambamark3@gmail.com {loadposition inarticle}

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@observer Wed, 13 Nov 2024 08:44:12

Litigant petitions chief justice over principal judge’s conduct, ruling

There are growing concerns over the way the principal judge Dr Flavian Zeija exercises his powers. A litigant has written to Chief Justice Alfonse Owiny-Dollo to intervene and rein in his subordinate. In a letter written on May 13, 2024, but only surfacing now after another litigant filed a petition in the Constitutional court challenging the actions of Zeija of withdrawing cases from judges mid-way through the hearing, Dr Medard Kiconco says the actions of Zeija put a doubt on his neutrality as a judge. “We pray that if you deem it necessary, you have a word with the PJ [principal judge] and offer guidance. Otherwise, given the high position held by the PJ in the judiciary, the path of lodging a complaint before the Judicial Service Commission (JSC) can easily see the matters herein spill, which situation, as a responsible citizen, and following the wise advice from my lawyers, is avoidable,” Kiconco’s letter to Owiny-Dollo reads in part. At the centre of the contention is a 130-acre piece of land found at Ssisa in Wakiso district. Kiconco is the attorney representing the descendants of Festo Banja who are Nalongo Margret Zalwango, John Lumansi Kazibwe and Eddy Kimera. These administrators claim that their land was illegally taken over by a company called Ladha Kassam and was being subdivided for sale. So, they wanted court to declare that it was mailo land and not freehold land and, therefore, it couldn’t have possibly belonged to Ladha Kassam all whose directors and shareholders are non- Ugandans. In his letter to the chief justice, Kiconco alleges that Zeija called the file which was in the High court Land division before it could be disposed of and decided to hear it himself. While the case was ongoing, Kiconco’s letter says that the administrators of Banja’s estate decided to apply for an interim order stopping the sale of the said land until the matter is determined. However, Zeija refused to grant the said order, arguing that in the event that he finds that the said land was mailo, the sales would collapse. “As such, Zeija in effect okayed the further selling of the said land by the defendants while the court case was ongoing. The plaintiffs contend that the said holding was in bad faith since the pleadings before the principal judge were clear with alternative prayers for cancellation of the said freehold titles, if they were existent for having been acquired fraudulently by the defendants,” the letter reads in part. With Zeija’s ruling, Kiconco’s letter says Ladha Kassam went ahead and sold the land to other people who were also later listed as defendants. The letter adds that when Zeija decided to have a locus visit of the land, he found that the land was being developed by third parties but still refused to fix another application for interim orders to stop the construction until the matter was determined. “There were signposts soliciting buyers of the said land which Zeija saw physically and which the plaintiffs’ lawyers put to his attention but he still refused to grant an administrative interim order for three days and even declined to fix for hearing the said application for an injunction and interim order,” the letter reads. The letter also adds that the complainants were also shocked by Zeija’s decision to volunteer evidence in favour of the registrar of titles who had already withdrawn his statements and asked court to expunge them from the record. “When we appeared on the said land for locus visit on April 25, 2024, Zeija told us that he wrote to the Administrator General for confirmation as to whether the suit land formed part of the estate of Festo Banja, and the Administrator General replied stating that Festo Banja had another successor not the plaintiffs. The PJ pulled out a document which he said was the succession register and gave it to us asking us to submit on it in the written submissions. The plaintiffs’ counsel, who were surprised by Zeija’s move to bring in evidence in favour of the defendants who had opted not to tender in any evidence, prayed to cross-examine the Administrator General on the said succession register. Zeija denied the prayer saying that the said Administrator General was not cross-examinable,” Kiconco’s letter reads in part. All these, the letter concludes, indicate that Zeija “engaged in gross and unexpected misconduct.” In his judgement which came two months after the letter on July 5, 2024, Zeija found that the land belonged to Ladha Kassam as it had rightly changed from mailo to freehold. “From the evidence on court record, whereas it is true that the suit land was registered in the names of Festo Banja on July 19, 1915 under mailo tenure, the same was converted to freehold tenure under the circumstances herein above explained hence the closure of the mailo register. The conversion was rightly done in line with the laws governing land conveyancing at that time. There is no evidence that this freehold tenure of the suit land was further changed. Therefore, the current tenure of the suit land is freehold,” Zeija’s ruling reads in part. It also calls on the police criminal investigation department to investigate the administrators of the estate of Banja and their attorney Kiconco for fraudulently acquiring an original title of the said land. “When counsel for the commissioner for Land registration, who is also a registrar of titles, looked at the title, he noticed that it was the original which is supposed to be in custody of the registrar of titles. When it was submitted to me, I confirmed that indeed it was the original title which is supposed to be in the custody of the registrar of titles. This points to a criminal act. I then confiscated the title and I’m due to pass on the title to the registrar of titles after delivering this judgement. I had thought of causing the arrest of the plaintiffs who are the donors of the power of attorney but the donee kept them out of site, including at the time of visiting locus in quo...This issue should be taken up for investigation by the Criminal Investigations Department of the Uganda Police Force for possible prosecution of all the perpetrators,” Zeija’s ruling reads in part. He also ordered that if the complainants can’t be found, their attorney Kiconco should bear all the costs of the suit to the nine defendants. “This suit is dismissed with costs to all defendants. It is apparent that the donee of powers of attorney did not disclose the identity of the donors. Under the law of agency, where a person acts for an undisclosed or unidentified principal, the agent is personally liable. Therefore, in the event that Medard Kiconco is unable to disclose the whereabouts of the donors, he will be personally liable to pay the costs of the suit,” the ruling reads. Contacted for a comment, Kiconco acknowledged writing the letter which he said was never responded to by the chief justice. He, however, declined to be drawn in the controversy. Efforts to reach out to Zeija for a comment were futile but this is not the first time he is being accused of his overbearing approach at High court. INTERESTING TREND Zeija has also been implicated in other cases where he has withdrawn files from a judge while the matters have either been determined or pending determinations. In the most recent one, he called a file from High court judge Grace Magala after she gave a ruling that didn’t amuse the solicitor general Pius Biribonwoha, who wrote to Zeija to exercise his administrative powers and look into the matter. Justice Magala’s ruling had restrained Eswatini company Inyatsi Construction Ltd from discharging a bank guarantee in respect of the construction works of the Kabuyanda earth dam in Isingiro district until the final ruling of a suit filed by Plinth Consultancy Services Limited, the project sub-contractor. Shortly afterwards, Magala was transferred to Arua circuit. Back in 2020, businessman Hamis Kiggundu petitioned the Judicial Service Commission (JSC) accusing Zeija of misconduct in his case against Diamond Trust Bank (DTB). This followed Zeija’s decision to halt the execution of Justice Henry Peter Adonyo’s judgment where Ham Enterprises emerged victorious. Shortly afterwards, Zeija transferred Adonyo to Soroti, from where he retired recently. In both cases, the losing sides represented by the powerful law firm K&K, whose principals are Attorney General Kiryowa Kiwanuka and Edwin Karugire. Late last year, Zeija was accused of interference when he sought to recall a court order issued by a High court deputy registrar against Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) after it lost a suit to John Imaniraguha. Judge Stephen Mubiru raised concerns over this interference, emphasizing the importance of judicial decisional independence. Earlier this year, Zeija also recalled a file from then High court acting judge Shamira Bukirwa, who had allowed an extraordinary meeting of the members of the Uganda Muslim Supreme Council, who then voted to impeach Sheikh Shaban Mubajje as the mufti of Uganda. Thereafter, Zeija suspended the implementation of the resolutions and weeks later, Bukirwa was the only acting judge from 16 not to be considered for the permanent job by President Museveni. So, Zeija later instructed Bukirwa to hand over all judiciary property and files in her possession. A retired judicial official who preferred anonymity said it is unprecedented for a principal judge to have so many people complaining about him. “Go check out the tenures of his predecessors [Yorokamu] Bamwine or [Herbert] Ntabgoba and see whether you will find such complaints. The current judiciary needs serious soul searching,” said the official. mmkakembo@gmail.com {loadposition inarticle}

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@observer Thu, 14 Nov 2024 04:42:23

Sironko district returns Shs 600m unspent funds to treasury

Sironko district has returned over Shs 600 million in unspent funds to the national treasury. The money, intended to pay teachers and non-teaching staff at Professor Nabudere Memorial Vocational School in Buyobo town council for the 2023/24 financial year, went unused due to staff shortages. The institute, established two years ago to honour the late Prof Dan Nabudere and promote youth skill development in the Bugisu region, currently has fewer than five teachers on the government payroll, while an additional ten staff members are not government-employed. Alfred Wesonga, Sironko district education officer, explained that the funds could not be utilized due to the limited number of government-employed staff. Hebert Musika, the district secretary for production and a councillor for Nalusala sub-county, called for expedited teacher recruitment. Nelson Kirinda, the district’s chief administrative officer, announced plans to write to the ministry of Education, requesting additional recruitment for both teaching and non-teaching staff. A management member at Professor Nabudere Memorial Institute, who wished to remain anonymous, stated that the institution requires over 20 teachers and support staff. Despite multiple requests to the ministry of Education from the principal for staff recruitment, no response has been received. The staff shortage has contributed to a decline in student enrollment, as the institute lacks adequate personnel to teach a range of courses. {loadposition inarticle}

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@observer Thu, 14 Nov 2024 05:06:22

Subaru driver who attempted to knock traffic officer fined Shs 600,000

Buganda Road Chief Magistrate’s court has convicted and sentenced Isaac Mukwaya, a driver who attempted to hit a traffic officer at Jinja Road roundabout last year. Mukwaya was convicted on Wednesday and ordered to pay a fine of Shs 600,000 or, if unable to pay, face a six-month prison term. The charges included careless driving and failure to stop when signalled by traffic officer Josam Katongole, who was on duty at the time of the incident. The conviction came after Mukwaya entered a plea bargain with the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, accepting liability for a lighter sentence. Initially, he had denied the charges but later explained that he is a family man and expressed a commitment to reform, noting his status as a young man with responsibilities. The court learned that on June 12, 2023, around 3 pm, Mukwaya, driving a black Subaru Forester, behaved recklessly at the Lyca Mobile Company parking yard in Kampala District. Police reported that he ignored traffic lights, prompting officer Katongole to pluck off his vehicle’s front number plate. Mukwaya then drove to the Central Police Station (CPS) in Kampala, where he informed officers that he had a sick child in the vehicle and was allowed to first take the child to the hospital. He returned to CPS an hour later and was arrested after a video of the incident circulated widely on social media. This case highlights a troubling pattern of road accidents involving police officers. In 2022, more than ten officers were killed in road crashes, at least three of whom were deliberately struck, including one fatal incident involving a vehicle from the ministry of Internal Affairs. {loadposition inarticle}

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